New satellite observations show that the developing 2026 El Niño event has an ocean pattern resembling the powerful 1997–98 episode, as United Nations agencies warn that the current event could become exceptionally strong before the end of the year.
NASA published a comparison of Pacific Ocean satellite measurements on October 23.
The images compare sea surface heights recorded on October 13, 1997, and October 12, 2026.
Both show unusually elevated sea levels extending across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific towards South America.
The pattern is associated with the accumulation of warmer ocean water during El Niño conditions.
Thirty-five years of satellite measurements
NASA’s comparison uses satellite altimetry, a method of measuring sea surface height from orbit.
Warm water expands, producing changes in sea level that satellites can detect.
Researchers can use those measurements to examine how warm water moves across the Pacific during El Niño events.
The 1997 observations came from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite.
The October 2026 measurements were collected by Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich.
NASA scientists compared the observations using a satellite record extending over approximately 35 years.
The agency reported that the current event developed more rapidly than the 1997 episode, although their October ocean patterns are similar.
UN forecasts unusually high Pacific temperatures
On October 21, the World Meteorological Organization warned that the current El Niño could reach exceptional strength.
Its seasonal outlook indicates that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures may rise to 3.8°C above average during November 2026 to January 2027.
That figure is a forecast for the tropical Pacific region used in the climate assessment.
It does not represent a predicted increase of 3.8°C in global average temperature.
The agency expects the event to peak towards the end of 2026.
35 years: Satellite measurement record used in NASA’s comparison.
1997 and 2026: October observations showing similar Pacific sea surface patterns.
3.8°C: Forecast tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly for November 2026 to January 2027.
50 million: People who could face increased hunger, according to the UN humanitarian warning.
Humanitarian agencies prepare for droughts and floods
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has warned that the event could increase humanitarian needs across several regions.
Its concerns include drought conditions, flooding, extreme heat and disruptions to agricultural production.
UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher said that as many as 50 million people could face increased hunger.
He also announced the release of more than US$50 million from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund to assist 11 countries facing climate-related risks.
The funding is intended to support preparedness and early action.
Implications for Sri Lanka
El Niño can influence rainfall patterns across Asia and the Pacific, although its effects differ between countries and seasons.
Sri Lanka has already experienced dry conditions affecting agriculture and water availability during 2026.
Lakbima News previously examined the risks facing Sri Lanka’s Maha cultivation season as authorities assessed reservoir storage and rainfall expectations.
The latest NASA observations provide further evidence of the strength of the developing Pacific climate event.
They do not establish the exact rainfall Sri Lanka will receive during the coming months.
Local forecasts and measurements from Sri Lanka’s meteorological and irrigation authorities remain necessary for assessing conditions affecting the country’s agriculture and water supplies.
