Flávio Bolsonaro will enter Brazil’s second round with a lead of 2.23 million votes over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
That is the number most likely to shape the next three weeks of political discussion.
It is not the biggest number sitting outside the two campaigns.
About 9.3 million valid votes went to other presidential candidates on Sunday.
Roughly 33.5 million registered voters did not vote at all.
Both groups are considerably larger than the first round gap.
Brazil votes again on October 25.
Bolsonaro Finished First, But Below 50 Percent
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court reported Flávio Bolsonaro on 56,104,268 votes with 99.99 percent of polling stations counted.
That represented 47.03 percent of valid votes.
Lula received 53,876,617, or 45.16 percent.
The difference was 2,227,651 votes.
Brazilian presidential elections require more than half of valid votes for a candidate to win in the first round.
Blank and null ballots do not count towards that threshold.
Neither candidate crossed it.
About 9.3 Million Valid Votes Went Elsewhere
Together, Bolsonaro and Lula received 92.19 percent of valid presidential votes.
That leaves 7.81 percent for the rest of the field.
Using the official result totals, that represents roughly 9.3 million valid votes.
Those voters are not a single political group.
Some may choose Bolsonaro.
Some may choose Lula.
Some may vote blank or null.
Others may not vote.
The figures show the size of the group, not how it will vote on October 25.
More Than 33 Million Registered Voters Did Not Vote
Brazil had 158,745,463 registered voters for the first round.
Turnout was 78.92 percent.
The abstention rate was 21.08 percent.
That represents roughly 33.5 million registered voters.
The number of registered voters who did not participate is about 15 times the first round gap.
A voter who missed the first round can still vote in the second if eligible.
Turnout Barely Changed From 2022
In the 2022 presidential first round, turnout was 79.05 percent.
This year it was 78.92 percent.
The difference is only 0.13 percentage points.
The number of registered voters increased from 156,454,011 in 2022 to 158,745,463 this year.
That is an increase of approximately 2.29 million people, or 1.46 percent.
The change in the presidential result therefore occurred without a major change in overall turnout.
The Leading Margin Moved by About 8.41 Million Votes
Lula received 57,259,504 votes in the 2022 first round.
Jair Bolsonaro received 51,072,345.
Lula led by 6,187,159 votes.
This year Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 2,227,651.
| First round | Leading candidate | Second candidate | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Lula, 57,259,504 | Jair Bolsonaro, 51,072,345 | Lula by 6,187,159 |
| 2026 | Flávio Bolsonaro, 56,104,268 | Lula, 53,876,617 | Flávio by 2,227,651 |
The distance between those two margins is about 8.41 million votes.
Lula’s Raw Vote Total Fell by About 3.38 Million
Lula received 57,259,504 first round votes in 2022.
This year he received 53,876,617.
That is about 3.38 million fewer votes.
His share of valid votes moved from 48.43 percent to 45.16 percent.
Jair Bolsonaro received 51,072,345 first round votes in 2022.
Flávio Bolsonaro received 56,104,268 this year.
Those are different candidates, so the figures should not be treated as a personal performance comparison.
The raw difference between the two Bolsonaro candidacies is about 5.03 million votes.
Millions of Votes Belong to Candidates No Longer on the Ballot
Writer Augusto Cury finished third with about 3.45 million votes when almost all polling stations had been counted.
Renan Santos followed with about 2.68 million.
Those two candidates alone attracted more than six million votes.
Neither appears on the second round ballot.
Their supporters now make another choice.
Party or candidate endorsements do not transfer those votes automatically.
Almost Six Million Ballots Were Blank or Null
The electoral authority recorded about 2.3 million blank ballots.
Another 3.67 million were null.
Together they amount to almost six million votes.
They were excluded when calculating whether a candidate had won an absolute majority of valid votes.
Those voters can make the same choice or a different one in the second round.
The Campaign Has Three Weeks
The first round took place on October 4.
The second takes place on October 25.
The electoral calendar gives the campaigns 20 days from October 5 until the day before voting.
In 2022 the first round was held on October 2 and the second on October 30.
This year’s period between voting days is shorter.
This Is Not the Same First Round as 2022
The names can make the election look familiar.
Lula.
Bolsonaro.
A second round.
The numbers have changed.
Four years ago Lula entered the second round after leading the first by more than six million votes.
This year Flávio Bolsonaro enters the second round ahead by more than two million.
Turnout remains almost unchanged.
The electorate is slightly larger.
About 9.3 million valid votes went to candidates who are now out of the race.
Another 33 million registered voters stayed away.
