Lakbima News Investigations Desk
September 5, 2026
For many Sri Lankans, drought is still something associated with cracked paddy fields, empty village tanks and distant farming communities.
But that picture is changing.
Across parts of Sri Lanka, water is already being rationed, wells are drying up, reservoirs are falling to critically low levels and tens of thousands of people are depending on government water deliveries.
And scientists are warning that the weather system driving the crisis could become considerably stronger.
This is no longer simply a story about whether farmers will have a successful harvest.
It is becoming a question of how much water Sri Lanka will have — for drinking, agriculture, livestock and the economy — if the dry conditions continue.
The numbers behind the crisis
The Disaster Management Centre’s latest situation reporting shows that drought conditions have been affecting multiple districts, with emergency drinking-water distribution already underway.
By September 2, authorities reported 88,068 people from 27,475 families affected by dry weather across 28 Divisional Secretariat divisions in six districts.
Monaragala was the worst affected, with drinking water being supplied to 37,890 people from 11,751 families.
Batticaloa was also severely affected, with more than 28,000 people receiving drinking-water assistance.
The DMC continues to list drought situation reports among its latest emergency reports, demonstrating that this is an active disaster-management issue rather than simply a seasonal weather concern.
But the most worrying numbers may be found below the surface.
Reservoirs are running down
On August 29, reservoir storage under the Irrigation Department had fallen to 34.7%.
The situation was considerably worse in some districts.
Ampara’s reservoir capacity had fallen to 21.7%, while Batticaloa was at 25.6% and Trincomalee at 26.8%.
Several individual reservoirs had fallen below 20%.
This matters because Sri Lanka’s reservoir system is not simply a collection of scenic tanks.
It is part of the country’s agricultural and water-security infrastructure.
Reservoir water supports irrigation, drinking-water supplies and, in some circumstances, other economic activities.
When storage falls, authorities have to make increasingly difficult choices about where the remaining water should go.
Drinking water or irrigation?
Today’s crops or next season’s crops?
Livestock or household consumption?
Those choices become more difficult as the dry period continues.
In some villages, water is already a daily battle
Reuters visited drought-hit communities in Ampara and Monaragala and found residents struggling to obtain enough water for basic household needs.
Farmer A.M. Pathmasena told Reuters that his well, which had provided water for more than three decades, had nearly dried up.
In his village, residents have resorted to digging small holes in dried riverbeds and waiting for water to seep through.
Government water deliveries are reaching many affected communities, but access is not equal.
People living along accessible roads may receive deliveries every few days, while some remote households reportedly wait much longer — in some cases up to 23 days.
That changes the meaning of a drought.
It is no longer simply a shortage of rain.
It becomes a shortage of time.
Families have to decide which activities can continue and which must stop.
The farmers are losing more than crops
The economic consequences may prove more serious than the immediate water shortage.
Pathmasena told Reuters that before the drought he earned around Rs.20,000 a month cultivating cowpeas.
The crop has now been lost.
He has turned to daily-wage work.
His son’s poultry business has also been shut down because of the combination of heat and water shortages.
This is the part of the drought that can easily disappear from national statistics.
A failed crop is not simply a failed crop.
It can mean:
- a farmer unable to repay a loan;
- a family reducing food consumption;
- livestock being sold;
- a small business closing;
- children leaving work or education to help their families;
- and increased demand for government assistance.
If the crisis expands, these effects can move beyond farming communities and eventually reach food prices and household budgets.
The bigger threat may still be ahead
Sri Lanka’s immediate drought is occurring as the El Niño climate pattern strengthens.
The Department of Meteorology has warned that there is a probability exceeding 90% that the current El Niño conditions could develop into a very strong event.
The World Meteorological Organization has issued an even broader warning.
According to the WMO’s latest assessment, there is a near-100% likelihood that the current El Niño will persist through February 2027.
The organisation says the event could potentially become the strongest on record.
That does not mean Sri Lanka will necessarily experience continuous drought until 2027.
El Niño does not produce identical weather everywhere, and Sri Lanka’s rainfall depends on several atmospheric and oceanic factors.
But it does mean the country is entering a period in which water management deserves considerably more attention.
Sri Lanka had a warning
The current crisis did not arrive without warning.
Sri Lanka’s authorities had already been monitoring the development of El Niño months ago.
The Department of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook warned that El Niño conditions were likely to emerge during 2026 and persist through at least the end of the year.
The Disaster Management Centre likewise identifies agriculture, water management, disaster risk reduction, hydropower and health among the sectors requiring advance climate information and planning.
The question therefore changes from:
“Could a drought happen?”
to:
“How prepared were we for the drought that was already being forecast?”
Emergency water trucks are a solution — but not a strategy
Supplying drinking water by truck is essential when communities run out of safe water.
But it is also one of the clearest signs that the normal water system has already failed in those locations.
Water bowsers can keep households alive during an emergency.
They cannot replace functioning wells, healthy catchments, full reservoirs and reliable rainfall.
Nor can they solve the economic losses suffered by farmers whose crops have already failed.
This distinction matters.
Relief prevents a disaster from becoming a humanitarian catastrophe.
Resilience prevents the same disaster from repeatedly destroying livelihoods.
Sri Lanka needs both.
What happens if the drought reaches the next cultivation season?
This could become the most important question of the coming months.
Farmers need water not only for today’s crops but also to prepare for the next cultivation cycle.
If reservoirs remain low, authorities may be forced to restrict irrigation.
That could reduce cultivated acreage or force farmers toward crops requiring less water.
The consequences could then move through the food system.
Lower domestic production can increase dependence on outside supplies.
Higher transportation and import costs can then feed into consumer prices.
In a country where households are still highly sensitive to food costs, a prolonged agricultural shock could become an economic problem far beyond the drought-hit districts.
The groundwater question
There is another warning sign.
Authorities have already begun looking underground.
The National Water Supply and Drainage Board has started a programme to construct tube wells in drought-hit areas, including around 60 tube wells in Monaragala and additional wells in Batticaloa.
Groundwater can provide an important emergency buffer.
But it should not be mistaken for an unlimited reserve.
If groundwater extraction increases substantially while natural recharge remains low, Sri Lanka could simply move the water shortage from visible reservoirs to invisible underground reserves.
That makes monitoring essential.
A crisis that could expose Sri Lanka’s water-management weaknesses
Sri Lanka has one of the world’s oldest and most sophisticated traditions of water management.
The island’s ancient tank systems were designed around the fundamental principle that water must be stored when it is available and managed carefully when it is scarce.
The modern challenge is different.
Rainfall is becoming less predictable.
Extreme heat increases evaporation.
Agriculture remains heavily dependent on water.
Population and economic activity continue to require reliable supplies.
And climate patterns can change rapidly.
The current drought therefore presents Sri Lanka with a test that goes beyond simply waiting for the next rainfall event.
The questions authorities need to answer
The government has already begun emergency measures.
But several questions deserve clear public answers.
How much water remains in Sri Lanka’s major reservoirs today?
How long can existing reserves support drinking-water requirements if the drought continues?
Which districts are at greatest risk of running out of safe drinking water?
How many farmers have already lost crops?
How much agricultural land could be affected if irrigation restrictions continue?
What is the government’s contingency plan for the next cultivation season?
How much groundwater can safely be extracted from drought-hit districts?
What happens if the predicted strong El Niño continues into early 2027?
And perhaps most importantly:
At what point does the government move from emergency response to a national water-security strategy?
Sri Lanka cannot control El Niño
There is one thing Sri Lanka cannot do.
It cannot turn off El Niño.
But it can control how it responds.
The drought has already demonstrated that vulnerable communities can run short of water surprisingly quickly.
Reservoir levels have fallen.
Farm incomes are being lost.
Government water deliveries have become necessary.
And international climate agencies are warning that the broader weather pattern may intensify.
The danger is not that Sri Lanka will suddenly wake up one morning without water.
The danger is that the country gradually enters a situation where every sector needs more water than the system can safely provide.
That is when a drought becomes an economic crisis.
For now, the most important question is not whether the rain will eventually come.
It is whether Sri Lanka will be prepared if it doesn’t come soon enough.
Lakbima News Investigations
This report is based on information from Sri Lanka’s Disaster Management Centre, Department of Meteorology, National Water Supply and Drainage Board reporting and international reporting from Reuters. El Niño does not guarantee a particular weather outcome for Sri Lanka; its potential effects depend on wider atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
