Sri Lanka’s National System Operator has informed a stakeholder consultation that an increase in electricity tariffs is unnecessary for the final quarter of 2026, citing reservoir storage and expected rainfall conditions.
The operator presented its position during discussions held on November 5 concerning the proposed electricity tariff revision for October through December.
The Government Information Department reported the development the same day.
The announcement identifies the operator’s assessment but does not confirm a final tariff decision by the electricity regulator.
Reservoir levels influence operator’s assessment
The National System Operator considered water storage levels in reservoirs used for electricity generation.
It also referred to forecasts suggesting rainfall above normal levels under El Niño weather conditions.
Hydropower availability affects the electricity system’s generation mix.
When hydroelectric production increases, the system may require less generation from other sources, depending on demand and operational conditions.
However, the government announcement does not disclose the expected volume of hydropower generation during the fourth quarter.
It also does not identify the amount of thermal generation that could be displaced under the operator’s forecast.
Tariff consultation is separate from final approval
The November 5 meeting concerned the proposed tariff revision for the October to December period.
The National System Operator’s position forms part of the consultation process.
The announcement does not state that the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka has issued a final determination adopting that position.
It also does not provide a revised tariff table for household, commercial or industrial consumers.
Consequently, the operator’s statement should not be presented as an independently confirmed reduction or freeze in electricity charges.
Generation-cost figures not disclosed
The government statement does not identify the electricity system’s projected total generation cost for the quarter.
No comparison is provided between the original tariff proposal and the operator’s revised assessment.
The announcement also does not specify how changes in rainfall expectations would affect the cost of supplying one unit of electricity.
Those figures would be required to independently evaluate the financial basis of the operator’s position.
Reservoir levels and rainfall forecasts are relevant to generation planning, although actual electricity costs also depend on fuel prices, plant availability, demand and the generation mix.
Consumers await regulatory decision
Electricity tariffs affect household expenditure and operating costs across businesses and industries.
The operator’s position indicates that it does not currently consider an increase necessary for the fourth quarter.
The applicable tariff schedule will depend on the regulatory process and any subsequent determination.
The November 5 announcement provides no implementation date for a revised schedule.
A final decision and its supporting calculations would establish whether the operator’s assessment has been accepted.
